The Economics of Illicit Opana Pricing

[duck]

I've been thinking about this a lot lately.

In my area, buying illicit original Oxy OC 80s on the street went for $60. This was clearly the Equillibrium price in this market (Read: I don't care if you can get them for $5 from your mom).

Buying in Bulk, 30 or more, you got them for $24 a piece. Keep in mind that not many people have access to these, its not like anyone buying the $60 OC 80s could just call up one of the sources and grab 30 of them.

However, now that the OPs have come out, lots of the people who were getting scripted Oxys have switched to other shit that's easier to abuse, i.e. Fent, Morphine, Dilaudid, and Oxymorphone.

Before this, Oxymorphone has never been available consistently in my area. The only consistent strong illicit opiates were $60 OC80s, fent patches, morphine, etc.

I have heard lately from friends that I used to run with that Oxymophone is available like never before, especially the 40mg ERs. However, the prices have been all over the place. As you may have seen in my other thread, a friend of mine who actually is prescribed OxyC is getting switched to OxyM. Hers aren't for sale unfortunately :( lol, actually I do not indulge in opiates myself AT ALL as they do fuck-all whilst on 140mg of methadone. I also wouldn't buy them from her or anything and try to sell them, as I truly believe that selling drugs, especially opiates that are SO stigmatized these days, is FUCKING retarded. I know $35/pill profit is pretty attractive, not a lot of goods have profit margins of 140%. But fuck, you have to sell an entire script just to make $1000. I dunno, maybe I'm wrong, but having 30 OC80s out on the streets with your name on them if someone gets popped and the mouths start flappin is a LOT of risk for $1,000. I'm a worry wart though. I digress...

Under traditional economic theory, the introduction of Oxy OPs will drive up demand considerably for OxyMorphone, raising the price considerably, depending on the elasticity of the supply and demand curves.

Prior to the OPs, the equilibrium price of Oxymorphone (Opana) 40mg ER was $50. Oxy 80s were preferred (as illustrated by the equilibrium price of OC80s was $10 more than Opana 40s) only slightly, generally.

However, demand has completely crashed for OP80s. NOBODY wants them. Thus, as long as Opana hits the street quick before people get sober or go on BMT or MMT, I foresee demand really increasing for Opana.

The real question is: how much will this increase in demand drive up price? More precisely, What will be the new equilibrium price for Opana 40mg ER?

I think the price will go to $80. I think that is the cutoff point for most people. I mean, I know of OxyC markets that, through low supply and high demand, saw prices hit $100 for an OC80, so it is foreseeable that the price for Opana40 could go a lot higher than $80.

I don't know, I just don't think Opana will create the frenzy that OC did. There was just something so convenient about 80s that appealed to Sorority girls and hardened junkies alike. Opana is beautiful to the refined junkies, but its just not the same to the general public IMO.


What do you think? I find this shit so fucking interesting. I would love to write a doctoral thesis on the econometrics of illicit opiate markets, using real world data, etc.

[upstate_007]

I think you may be right duck.

People will be finding out that oxymorphone is a more than capable substitute for OC. Price even with illicit drugs is a matter of supply and demand. With OC gone, the oxymorphone is a likely next step.

If the price was $50 before, I think it will definitely go up. How high depends on what people are desperate enough to pay for.

It sucks that the secret is out so to say.

[seven10kids]

wow! 50$! shit!

price around these parts is about $30. $30 a 40mg is fair, like paying 50$ for an 8th of weed, middle of the road. $25 isnt unheard of if you are getting a couple and i hear people selling bottles for $15 a pill. I dont play that game, but it sounds tempting just to stock up for personal. I already get what i need for cancer pain but i can see the economics comming into play. never before OC 80s did we see pills going for that much, I remember back in the day 80s were 2 for $10!! shit, talk about supply and demand!! in my area they topped out at abotu $40 from a legit hookup, maybe $50 thru a middleman when the end was near, $60 was just a plain rip off, if you paid that you were desperate or had someone really going out of their way.

We will see if opana goes higher, but if anything i see it staying the same of dropping a little bit. Now more and more people are getting changed over so there is more of it around. More people are also demanding that tho, much more than OP 80s. You would have a tought time selling OP 80s for $10 each im sure. They would have to be the only option for them to sell. We will have to wait and see!! so , when is opana er changing over to the abuse proof pills? lol... to bad not many opana IRs around, maybe the new generic will change that, but then again those arent all that great i am hearing.

[reallyreality]

The ER 40's are 45 back home, and the only reason they're around is cause of the OPs. My regular guy had the OG 80s for 35, but the price fluctuated as his monthly supply diminished. Now he's just got roxis and opana. It's pretty interesting that he made the exact switch that I expected, much to my convenience.

[OxyRush Limbaugh]

duck,

interesting breakdown,

here's my tAKe, questions actually. how easily available is king H and what price does he command?

see, in my world I'm wondering if the OP's don't spawn a new generation of h users. Financially, h makes more sense. People using pharms may/may not know what the various formulations are capable of and human nature being to take the easy road may say fuck it and seek h.

it will be interesting to watch.

[duck]

ORL: In the main markets I'm involved in, H is not available prevalently. It's all pharms. Not by choice. Its just cost prohibitive ($ cost, and risk) to transport, i.e. too far from the hub.

7tenKids: In the area where your Opana 40s are $25, how much did OC80s cost? OC80s in this market were $60, so imho, $50 for an Opana 40 isn't crazy, ya know? These days I'd way rather have an Opana40 than a OC80.

[Chuckles]

I don't know, I just don't think Opana will create the frenzy that OC did. There was just something so convenient about 80s that appealed to Sorority girls and hardened junkies alike. Opana is beautiful to the refined junkies, but its just not the same to the general public IMO.



I dont have a lot of experience with Opana so I can't even tell if this is a stupid question or not, but why do you say that Opana doesn't have the same appeal as an OC to the "majority"? Is it because they don't have the infamy of OC? Are they less enjoyable to the naive? I are confused :(.

[degausser]

ORL: In the main markets I'm involved in, H is not available prevalently. It's all pharms. Not by choice. Its just cost prohibitive ($ cost, and risk) to transport, i.e. too far from the hub.

7tenKids: In the area where your Opana 40s are $25, how much did OC80s cost? OC80s in this market were $60, so imho, $50 for an Opana 40 isn't crazy, ya know? These days I'd way rather have an Opana40 than a OC80.
I hear ya man. I'd rather a 30 mg opana than an 80. Hell even a 10 mg ir is better than an 80 if your banging it.

[normus420]

Yea I agree with degausser oxy is my doc but 30mg of opana kicked my ass harder then an 80. Ive only had opana once but payed a dollar a mg. witch is what oxy is woth sometimes more. Id be willing to pay a little more idk about 80 for a 40 but maybe.

[Count Zero]

I've been thinking about this a lot lately.

In my area, buying illicit original Oxy OC 80s on the street went for $60. This was clearly the Equillibrium price in this market (Read: I don't care if you can get them for $5 from your mom).

Buying in Bulk, 30 or more, you got them for $24 a piece. Keep in mind that not many people have access to these, its not like anyone buying the $60 OC 80s could just call up one of the sources and grab 30 of them.

However, now that the OPs have come out, lots of the people who were getting scripted Oxys have switched to other shit that's easier to abuse, i.e. Fent, Morphine, Dilaudid, and Oxymorphone.

Before this, Oxymorphone has never been available consistently in my area. The only consistent strong illicit opiates were $60 OC80s, fent patches, morphine, etc.

I have heard lately from friends that I used to run with that Oxymophone is available like never before, especially the 40mg ERs. However, the prices have been all over the place. As you may have seen in my other thread, a friend of mine who actually is prescribed OxyC is getting switched to OxyM. Hers aren't for sale unfortunately :( lol, actually I do not indulge in opiates myself AT ALL as they do fuck-all whilst on 140mg of methadone. I also wouldn't buy them from her or anything and try to sell them, as I truly believe that selling drugs, especially opiates that are SO stigmatized these days, is FUCKING retarded. I know $35/pill profit is pretty attractive, not a lot of goods have profit margins of 140%. But fuck, you have to sell an entire script just to make $1000. I dunno, maybe I'm wrong, but having 30 OC80s out on the streets with your name on them if someone gets popped and the mouths start flappin is a LOT of risk for $1,000. I'm a worry wart though. I digress...

Under traditional economic theory, the introduction of Oxy OPs will drive up demand considerably for OxyMorphone, raising the price considerably, depending on the elasticity of the supply and demand curves.

Prior to the OPs, the equilibrium price of Oxymorphone (Opana) 40mg ER was $50. Oxy 80s were preferred (as illustrated by the equilibrium price of OC80s was $10 more than Opana 40s) only slightly, generally.

However, demand has completely crashed for OP80s. NOBODY wants them. Thus, as long as Opana hits the street quick before people get sober or go on BMT or MMT, I foresee demand really increasing for Opana.

The real question is: how much will this increase in demand drive up price? More precisely, What will be the new equilibrium price for Opana 40mg ER?

I think the price will go to $80. I think that is the cutoff point for most people. I mean, I know of OxyC markets that, through low supply and high demand, saw prices hit $100 for an OC80, so it is foreseeable that the price for Opana40 could go a lot higher than $80.

I don't know, I just don't think Opana will create the frenzy that OC did. There was just something so convenient about 80s that appealed to Sorority girls and hardened junkies alike. Opana is beautiful to the refined junkies, but its just not the same to the general public IMO.


What do you think? I find this shit so fucking interesting. I would love to write a doctoral thesis on the econometrics of illicit opiate markets, using real world data, etc.


Where do I buy Opana call options?

[J.Dot]

In my opinion...

...I don't think the OM will reach such high prices the way the OC80s did. At least, if the main buyers/users are IV users. With the OG OC80s, it was simple. Crush, water, filter, slam. With the Opana ER'S, it's so much more work then that. (if it's even possible, I haven't kept up on whether or not someone has figured it out.) But either way, it's going to take a LOT more work to bang those Opana ER'S, then it did those OC80s.

I mean, the 80s were just convenient, because they were so simple to do, no matter what the ROA was. So more people demanded them, driving the prices up.

Now with people shooting down the OPs, and getting switched to Opana, it's more work to get high from, with whatever ROA you use.

I hope this shit makes sense, I'm high as fuck and it's making sense in my head.

Note: I could possibly see the price of the IRs going up and exceeding the price of the ERs, because they're convenient, the same way the 80s were. And you can use them in any ROA, and not really worry about anything, other then how quickly you can get it prepped.

[shoybs]

round here the price of an opana 40 varies from $40 to $55 each.

I don't see the price increasing much more if at all.

Reason being is I don't think Opana will make the splash that OC did. OC owes its popularity to the tons and tons of media attention that it received. I don't see Opana getting that same attention. And when's the last time you heard some guy rapping about popping Opanas?

There's also the injection factor. OC was easily shootable by anyone who had a little knowledge and the supplies. Opana ER isn't so easy to shoot unless you know what the fuck you're doing. And even those people might not be willing to wait to do the 24-hour extraction. Also, a lot of people who jump from shooting OCs to shooting Opana without learning about the dosing difference will start dropping like flies. Who knows, maybe it will be the next "epidemic". People start snorting their Opanas and think, "Well it takes 80mg of Opana insufflated to get high, so I'll shoot 80mg and get really high!" Then boom, they're dead. This happens a dozen or so times and we'll have another media frenzy on our hands.

[fauxflavored]

i would love to try oxymorph. unfortunately the only pharms people have around here are vicodin, lorcet, and occasionally percocet. luckily for me, H is as easy to get as McDonalds.

[duck]

Where do I buy Opana call options?

I'd stick with Purdue put options ;)

[upstate_007]

Ive only had opana once but payed a dollar a mg. witch is what oxy is woth sometimes more. Id be willing to pay a little more idk about 80 for a 40 but maybe.

With Opana being so much stronger, a dollar per mg is not that bad. 10mg opana sniffed is approx. 50mg oxycodone sniffed. 10mg opana booted is approx. 100mg oxycodone booted. Lots of bang for the buck there.

[seven10kids]

7tenKids: In the area where your Opana 40s are $25, how much did OC80s cost? OC80s in this market were $60, so imho, $50 for an Opana 40 isn't crazy, ya know? These days I'd way rather have an Opana40 than a OC80.[/QUOTE]


Huh lets see.... yeah opans 40s are about $25. I kinda see the price going more to $25 than $30 these days even. I hear you one the opana 40 over oc 80 thing. It was real cool at first. Personally with to opana they made my tolly get higher since they been around.

The old 80s, pretty much around here have always been about $40 in singles, 25$-30$ in bulk, some people are goughing for OG 80s right now but no one is paying. I hear 40 a 40 and laugh, id rather have 2 opana 40s than one OC 40, who wouldnt. Last times i picked up 80s, they were $30 each after the chance which was cool, but no steady supply for anyone these days.

Now its just all opanas and roxis... whatever, its still all good. When opana changes to non crushable we are going to be fucked, but honestly i have seen an increase on fent and other things on the street. so there will always be somethinng.

[sigprn]

opana 40mg is currently being sold for 55.

[Weefa]

50-60 in my area... i hear there goin for 2 dollars a mill in the next town over... these yellow stop signs are gold.

[paups]

Sorry guys, I know this is not a helpful opinion but why the HELL would anyone pay that much for a pill of ANYTHING unless you were desperately desperately ill and had to run a marathon or your kitten would be tortured and killed and you had to eat it etc? maybe Im missing something..

[duck]

Paupie,

I agree generally,.but for the majority of America dope isn't prevalent. This makes a 50$ opana 40 quite valuable.

And even in the NE, I agree with you if the dope is GOOD. however, its harder and harder to find good dope easy for cheap even in the NE. If you IV your opana, 40mg is extremely close to the same amount of total goodness to a half gram or 6 bags for $50. Maybe you've just been getting better dope than me.

[n33d2Bn0dd1n]

Where do I buy Opana call options?
good call...
as of ~1pm eastern time:
Stock Quote
ENDP (Common Stock)
Exchange NASDAQ
(US Dollar)Price$36.01
Change (%) http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/global_images/arrow_upGreen.gif 0.79 (2.24%)
Volume858,360

pretty good volume for nasdaq - looks like the legit market people don't really keep their ear to the ground when it comes to pissed off junkies wanting a better fix NOW!!!

[seven10kids]

good call...
as of ~1pm eastern time:
Stock Quote
ENDP (Common Stock)
Exchange NASDAQ
(US Dollar)Price$36.01
Change (%) http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/global_images/arrow_upGreen.gif 0.79 (2.24%)
Volume858,360

pretty good volume for nasdaq - looks like the legit market people don't really keep their ear to the ground when it comes to pissed off junkies wanting a better fix NOW!!!


i think the majority of the crowd is going to generic roxi. and that is spit up amongst what, 6-8 companies.

[wropp]

man, opanas are blowing up down here. hard to find anything else, and for the price def the best bang for you buck. In the north houston burbs, swim gets 40s for 40, square deal, but swim buys more than 10 every time so its like, 34? swim has been known to pay a little extra to keep the pills coming though, so 10 for 400 is a square deal no matter how you look at it. Yella stopsigns, god damnit

[WeJamminn]

in my opinion and experience over the past few months since they came out with the new OP's 80's n what not the demand for opanas amongst all the people i know who do pills the demand for opanas has relatively stayed the same. I find that a lot of people still really dont know what they are, which is a select few, but in general all the people that i know still prefer roxi's over opanas always. I find this completely insane seeing as how the price of roxi 30's around here are never less that $25 a piece unless you have a legit connect and usually it's an older person. (SWIM's connect gets 240 roxi 30's a month n fronts them all to SWIM to sell at 15 a piece and
SWIM knows 1 other dealer out of about 20-25 dealers that has them less than 25 a piece and it's very inconsistent.)


On top of that as you all know one opana 40 does what 5 roxi 30's do to me. The price for opana's varies from $40 to $60 in general but i have seen it get as high as $2 per mg when it's "dry" around town. I started being able to get opanas about 5-6 months ago from like maybe 2 people total out of the 20 or so dealers i know and now 5 months later about 5 more of those 20 or so dealers are starting to catch on and are getting them about once a month and when they get the script they fly n they're all gone within like 2 -3 days
tops.


I should say that the prices on these opanas are by the single's and are not in bulk prices but in general bulk prices for 20 or more 40's you're gonna get em for about 25-30 a piece. which isn't bad at all seeing as you can basically charge up to $70 bucks a piece for em if no one else has em at the time and people will still pay it because when you compare it to roxi's it's still a WAY better deal. So demand has definitely grown but the supply has seemed to grow along with it. Rather i think that they were around before but the dealers didn't know people liked them as much if not more than roxis so they never tried to sell em. But that being said the price has said about the same since i first started seeing them more regularly.

[clinton]

Question that's probably been asked- how are these flooding the market? If the new oxy formulation was intended to curb injection and doctors and pharmacists are aware of this why wouldnt they stick to their guns and continue prescribing the oxy? Patients would have had to asked for a switch to the opanas correct? It's just silly I guess, you'd think the docs would have stuck to their guns.

[normus420]

Its not the doctors that care so much as the dea and fda. A good doctor will listen to there patient and when they dont like the new crap op's they make the switch to the next thing roxi,ms or opana.

[WeJamminn]

clinton the way most doctors prescribe pain medication is they give you oxycodone/oxymorphone/morphine in an EXTENDED release formulation and then they prescribe you oxycodone/oxymorphone/morphine INSTANT release typically for break-through pain. A lot of the doctors in Florida wouldn't necessarily do this and they'd just script their patients roxi 30's instant release and then roxi 15's instant release as the break-through with no other type of pain pill prescribed at the same time. You'd get like for example if you were max'd out you would be getting 240 roxi 30mgs or 8 daily INSTANT release and then 180 roxi 15mg's INSTANT release. I'm pretty sure there's a law in other states if not in florida now that is supposed to not let doctors prescribe 2 types of instant release pain medication to be taken together in the same day/month for pain management.

So most doctors ( I can only speak for the ones in Tennessee that my friends go to) they will prescribe for example max'd out 240 roxi 30mg (8 daily) INSTANT release and then also either opana (at any mg they choose maybe 2 or 3 daily) EXTENDED release or morphine EXTENDED release. For example my buddy's dad is prescribe 180 roxi 30mg INSTANT release per month along with 60 opana 40mg EXTENDED release. This month they switched him from the opana to morphine extended release 100mg twice daily. which is completely retarded because 200 mg of morphine daily is no where near 80mg of opana but the doctor doesn't seem to understand the conversion or just doesn't give a fuck. None the less i was pissed as fuck to find out there were no more opanas for cheap :( prolly a good thing tho. but yea hope that clears up some confusion.

[digby]

Jammin', there are no laws prohibiting a doctor from prescribing 2 instant release pain medications in any state. I have known lots of patients that are prescribed several IR meds and no extended release meds at all. It just goes against the current trend in prescribing practice to do so.

Right now, doctors simply aren't being pressured to stop prescribing Opana like they are with oxycodone products so until that changes I would think we will see a lot more Opana available, diluting what has been up til now a pretty sparse med to find. At least it will be that way with ER Opana. I would think that IR Opana will always be in short supply and more valued, simply because it is an "add-on" for breakthrough pain to a patients workhorse medication, which is typically extended release.

[duck]

In every instance I have heard of, Clinton, the patients asked to be switched and were allowed.

[WeJamminn]

ya i wasn't sure if it was really a law or not but i'd just heard that doctors aren't supposed to script two IR meds that are the exact same medication just in a different mg. because if you think about it the max for roxi's is 240 roxi 30's a month but if ur getting 180 fifteens thats 90+240= 330 roxi 30's a month. Don't know if the max (240) is a limit by law either but i was just under the assumption that mosdt doctors didn't prescribe two IR meds for PM and then break-thru. Could be wrong tho and obviously I am if your info is correct digby

[digby]

Yep, information is correct. I personally get several IR sched II meds prescribed every month, with no ER meds. I also used to get prescribed 360 Oxy IR's a month, so 240 is not a limit by law but is often imposed by insurance companies.

[deltapsik0]

SWIM says opana 40 = 30 now.. 20-25 in bulk ususall if 5-20 or more.... OP 80z pretty much go for 15-18 in singles and 10 in bulk.... OC80 go for 100-120 here and oc40 is like 50-60 each right now.

previously oc80s were 25-40 each depending.. and the opana was the same.. just alot harder to get.. people just hate the taste and don't get that initial rush like there is with the orig oc.

the IR 5s and 10s go for 2 dollars a MG almost... this is the opana 5s/10s that is.